Bad economy reduces valley birthrate

Stanislaus County joins Merced, San Joaquin with fewer babies

By J.N. Sbranti
jsbranti@modbee.com

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During tough economic times, birthrates decline. At least they did last year in California and throughout the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Fewer children were born in the state during 2008 than the year before, and the drop was even more dramatic in Stanislaus, San Joaquin and Merced counties.

"People are less likely to have children if they don't have a job," explained Mary Heim, chief of California's Demographic Research Unit, which released the birth statistics Monday afternoon. "We saw birthrates drop across almost all race groups."

There were 551,567 children born in California last year, which was 14,570 fewer than the year before. That was almost a 2.6 percent drop.

Stanislaus had a 3.1 percent drop in births in 2008, falling 277 to 8,549. That was the first decline in more than a decade, but it's not unprecedented. Births fell during the mid-'90s when the region suffered through its last recession.

"People decide not to increase their families when they're having difficulties," said Cleopathia Moore, director of Stanislaus' maternal, child and adolescent health department. "I'm sure there are some who made a conscious choice (not to bear children) last year."

That downward trend started two years ago in Merced and San Joaquin counties. Births there declined in 2008 and 2007, falling about 6.5 percent from their 2006 peak.

Part of the region's shrinking number of births may be because of families fleeing the Northern San Joaquin Valley, which has some of the nation's highest unemployment and foreclosure rates.

"We all know families that have left and whose homes are now up for sale," Moore said.

Statewide, however, the number of Californians moving out has slowed, according to Heim. The out-migration rates were relatively high a couple of years ago. But since the recession has spread nationwide, Heim said there's less incentive for unemployed Californians to move out of state.

Those who remain are simply having fewer babies.

California's birthrate last year fell to 2.14 children per woman, which Heim said is about "replacement level." That means that over the course of her life, the average California woman is having two children: One to eventually replace herself and one to eventually replace the child's father.

Latinas having most babies

Because some females never have children (including those who die young), Heim said a 2.1 birthrate is needed for a population to break even.

If it weren't for Latinas having relatively high birthrates, California's population would be shrinking.

In 2008, the birthrate in California was 2.73 children for Latinas, 1.65 for whites who aren't Latinas, 1.85 for Asians and 1.72 for blacks, according to the state report.

The state report projects that California births will start climbing again soon, with gains averaging about 5,590 a year during the next decade. But if current trends continue, California's fertility rate will fall below the replacement level by 2016.

That's because Latina birthrates are declining. They were at 2.92 births per woman in 2006, but they are expected to fall to 2.39 by 2018.

More than 52 percent of the children born in California last year were Latino. About 28 percent were non-Latino whites, nearly 12 percent were Asians, and more than 5 percent were black. The rest were American Indian, Pacific Islander and multiracial.

Bee staff writer J.N. Sbranti can be reached at jsbranti@modbee.com or 578-2196.