Monday, December 01, 2008

Opponents: $9B in Prop. 1A a fraction of the plan's cost

By Russell Clemings
The Fresno Bee

last updated: October 14, 2008 03:44:17 AM

The San Joaquin Valley may have more at stake than the rest of California when voters decide Nov. 4 whether to build a statewide high-speed rail system.

Major valley cities from Modesto to Bakersfield were bypassed a generation ago when the state built its main north-south highway, Interstate 5. But the rail system eventually would have stations in most of those cities.

Construction would begin with a segment of about 160 miles from Merced to Bakersfield. It would be used for testing the 220 mph trains and getting them certified for their first use in the United States.

An Oct. 1 consultant's report for the California High Speed Rail Authority predicted that the trains could help lift the valley from its long economic malaise and produce billions of dollars worth of new business. A July poll suggested that voters are ready to endorse high-speed rail by more than the required majority.

But Proposition 1A provides only $9 billion for a system estimated to cost $33 billion for the first phase alone, which will run from San Francisco to Southern California, missing Modesto because state transportation leaders prefer the Pacheco Pass route to the Altamont Pass option.

The ballot item includes $950 million for local transit connections to the high-speed tracks. Altamont Commuter Express trains, caught by hundreds of Modesto-area workers to the East Bay, would compete for that chunk of money.

The rest required for the statewide system, the authority says, is expected to come from the federal government and private investors such as pension funds. None of that money is nailed down.

A small but vocal group of critics, led by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, is skeptical that the additional money ever will be found. The opponents also claim that the project is certain to suffer from cost overruns, is unlikely to carry as many riders as the authority projects, and may not even collect enough fares to cover its operating expenses.

Current plans call for the high-speed system, modeled after those operating in Europe, Japan and China, to start carrying passengers a decade from now.

Its first line would run from Anaheim and Los Angeles to San Francisco via Palmdale, Bakersfield, Fresno, Merced and San Jose. That puts the south valley at the heart of the system. Unlike I-5, the high-speed tracks would run directly through the region's cities.

Shawn Kantor, a University of California at Merced economist who was paid by the authority to assess the system's likely effects on the Central Valley, describes a future in which goods and people can move easily and cheaply.

"Transportation costs are very high in the Central Valley," he said. "If you start breaking that barrier down, it will help us."

But opponents focus on construction costs, which they say are likely to rise, and on the authority's plans for future phases to the rest of the state's major cities, including Modesto, Sacramento and San Diego, which they think are unrealistic.

"If the governor put me in charge of that agency tomorrow, I would say start over," said Joseph Vranich, who co-wrote a critique of the authority's plan for the Jarvis association, the libertarian Reason Foundation and Citizens Against Government Waste.

Also opposing the proposition is the California Chamber of Commerce. But many local chambers, including in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Fresno, support it. Environmental groups are generally in support or neutral.

An investment or a waste?

High-speed rail advocates base their support on the idea that California needs a third method of intercity transportation.

Next Page >

• Comments
• Add Comment
• Disclaimer