Hispanics gain ground, according to new census figures

Whites still a majority, but numbers steadily shrinking

By J.N. SBRANTI
jnsbranti@modbee.com

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For probably the last time, Stanislaus County's white population maintained its majority in 2007. But Census Bureau statistics released today show the number of white residents is steadily declining as the county's population expands.

The new demographic data estimates Stanislaus' white non-Hispanic population was 50.2 percent of the county's total, with Hispanics making up 39 percent.

The percentage of whites has been shrinking by about 1 percent per year since the turn of the century. The Census Bureau calculated that about 14,700 fewer whites lived in Stanislaus on July 1, 2007, than on July 1, 2000.

The Hispanic population, by contrast, increased more than 55,700 during those years.

"Big families is probably the big factor," speculated Dave Lopez, who became Modesto's second Hispanic City Council member last year.

Lopez was right.

Census statistics show that among Stanislaus' Hispanics, more than 41 percent are younger than 20. Fewer than 25 percent of whites are that young.

Whites tend to be much older. More than 15 percent of Stanislaus' white population is over 65, but less than 5 percent of Hispanics are that old.

Lopez said people shouldn't worry about the demographic shift.

"We're all Stanislaus County folks. We're all on the same team," said Lopez, a lifelong resident of Modesto. "I've been a Modestan as long as I've been Hispanic."

By 2050, Hispanics will be the majority throughout the San Joaquin Valley, predicted David Hosley, president of the Great Valley Center in Modesto.

"The big bulge of aging baby boomers is largely white," said Hosley, noting that boomers have passed their child-bearing years. That's not the case with most Hispanics, who are predominantly young.

Stanislaus and the rest of the valley risk "serious estrangement" between older whites and younger Hispanics, Hosley warned. To prevent that, he recommends more Hispanics become active in civic life and pursue leadership roles in community groups and public offices. He said such civic activities currently are dominated by whites.

Hosley said Hispanics need to be encouraged to get involved in their children's schools, volunteer with nonprofit agencies and join public service groups because it's important for such organizations to reflect the population.

That's why the Great Valley Center is recruiting "people of color" to attend a workshop Sept. 13 in Modesto on the Fundamentals of Nonprofit Board Leadership.

"We all want to embrace the changes in our population," Hosley said. Expanding ethnic and racial populations, he said, "can make for a more vibrant community."

Here are additional statistics included in the Census Bureau report, called the 2007 County Population Estimates by Demographic Characteristics:

Asians -- Stanislaus' Asian population was estimated at 4.8 percent in 2007, compared with 4.4 percent in 2000.

Last year, Asians were an estimated 13.2 percent of San Joaquin County's population, 6.3 percent in Merced County and 1.1 percent in Tuolumne County.

Blacks -- Stanislaus' black population was estimated at 2.7 percent in 2007, compared with 2.4 percent in 2000.

Last year, blacks composed 7.4 percent of the population in San Joaquin, 3.5 percent in Merced and 2.3 percent in Tuolumne.

Hispanics -- Hispanics are the majority in Merced, making up 52.4 percent of the population. They are 39 percent in Stanislaus, 36.4 percent in San Joaquin and 9.6 percent in Tuolumne.

Median age -- Tuolumne has one of the oldest populations in California, with a median age of 43.2 years. Merced has one of the youngest, with a median age of 29.1. The median age is 31.7 in Stanislaus and 31.6 in San Joaquin.

Sex --There are slightly more females than males in Stanislaus County, but the opposite is true in San Joaquin, Merced and Tuolumne. That's probably because there are men's prisons in San Joaquin, Merced and Tuolumne, which skews the data.

Age -- There are more than three times as many people younger than 20 as over 65 in Stanislaus, San Joaquin and Merced. But in Tuolumne, there's virtually the same number of people younger than 20 as over 65.

Los Angeles County -- About 71 percent of its residents, or 7 million, are Hispanic, black, Asian or another minority. About one of every 14 American minorities lives there. Los Angeles County's minority population is higher than the population of all but 12 states.

Ethnic majorities -- Of 3,142 U.S. counties, 302 had populations in which minorities composed more than 50 percent of the population.

On the Net:

For more on the leadership conference, go to www.nprcenter.org.

Bee staff writer J.N. Sbranti can be reached at jsbranti@modbee.com or 578-2196.