The race: McNerney vs. pundits' prediction

E-Mail

Comments (0)

Text Size:

tool goes here

A fluke. Unbelievable upset. One-term congressman.

Those are some of the labels affixed to Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Pleasanton. In 2006, his unlikely victory over incumbent Republican Richard Pombo in the 11th Congressional District was California's contribution to the anti-incumbent wave that swept Republicans from control of Congress.

But as soon as pundits crowned McNerney, an unpolished wind-power engineer who had never held elected office, they also began writing his political obituary.

Why? Because:

McNerney's background was thought to be a poor fit for a rough-and-tumble Congress, especially for a freshman legislator.

Even worse, he was in a district that was drawn for Republicans, carved from most of San Joaquin County and parts of the East and South Bay. East of the Altamont Pass, the thinking went, more conservative voters wouldn't stand for a politician espousing liberal Bay Area politics.

Republicans would put money, time and effort to take back his seat, much as the Democrats (and environmental groups) did to unseat Pombo.

Some of those predictions are coming true, as McNerney prepares for his first re-election campaign. He's facing formidable opposition in Dean Andal, a Stockton businessman with strong name recognition in the Northern San Joaquin Valley and a heap of experience as a former state Assemblyman and Board of Equalization and Franchise Tax Board member. Andal now is a Lincoln Unified School District trustee.

Registration tilts the GOP's way. A California secretary of state's report from December shows the 11th District is 42.1 percent registered Republicans and 37.5 percent registered Democrats.

Carl Fogliani, a political consultant based in the district who worked with Pombo two years ago, said Republicans have every reason to think they'll take back the seat this year.

Party registration and Andal's strong name recognition without the baggage Pombo had are two reasons, he said. And there are others.

"You have a Congress with lower approval ratings than President Bush, which is what Democrats are always talking about," said Fogliani, who is not affiliated with any 11th District candidate. "This is a Republican, agriculture-based seat."

McNerney's people also think it will be a tough race. But they're optimistic.

Spokesman Andy Stone said McNerney has made an effort to come back to his district nearly every weekend to meet with constituents from Ripon to Brentwood to Morgan Hill.

Much of the discussion has centered on bringing jobs, especially in renewable energy, to the part of the district in the Northern San Joaquin Valley, Stone said.

McNerney may have a trump card for the registration disparity: A huge cash advantage. According to opensecrets. org, a campaign finance watchdog, McNerney has raised $1.06 million to Andal's $389,000.

With state Republican finances in disarray, Andal may have to do heavy lifting on his own to make the race competitive financially, though Pombo raised more money than McNerney and outspent him 2 to 1 in 2006 and lost, showing that money isn't everything.

The Rothenberg Political Report, which tracks political races, rates McNerney-Andal as a toss-up (neither candidate has any notable primary challengers) because of strong factors on both sides.

The report's political editor, Nathan Gonzales, said there's a wild card to consider: the presidential race.

A presidential candidate for either party who rallies the California base could bring out voters who tip the balance, Gonzales said.

"The presidential race can cut both ways," he said.

Fogliani said the race will be hotly contested and heavily scrutinized by pundits looking for trends.

"Looking at it, you have to put a radioactive symbol on this race because it's going to be nuclear," he said.

ADDENDUM: An update last week from the Stanislaus County registrar of voters shows the registration battle between Democrats and Republicans tightening.

As of Jan. 10, registered Republicans in Stanislaus County led registered Democrats by about 1,600 voters, 85,891 to 84,210. A month earlier, Democrats lagged by about 2,000 voters.

But both parties' registration numbers are trumped by the flood of voters who are casting ballots by mail in Stanislaus County: 86,296.

That's as of last Thursday -- three weeks before the election.

Bee staff writer Ben van der Meer can be reached at bvandermeer@modbee.com or 578-2331.