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Saturday, Nov. 24, 2007

Shoppers up early, eager for bargains

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The traditional start of holiday shopping season Friday in the Northern San Joaquin Valley featured some other well-worn "traditions": long checkout lines, sleepy expressions on early shoppers' faces, and plenty of hustle and bustle.

At Vintage Faire Mall in Modesto, busy pedestrian traffic suggested that even if the economy is in a slump, consumers are eager to open their wallets and tote bags from store to store.

Many shoppers said that they were out early because they wanted to spend less money this year, and picking up items at Black Friday sales was a good way to do it.

Sandy Oliver, 62, said she sees holiday shopping as a regular expense.

"I'll probably spend about as much as normal," said Oliver, of Manteca, who was shopping with

her son, Gregory Oliver, and carrying bags from Sears and other stores. "I do know your paycheck doesn't go payday to payday anymore, so you look for more bargains."

Gilbert Martinez of Ceres said such factors as the housing meltdown and higher gas prices can't help but change his family's thinking about its holiday spending.

"I think everyone does," said Martinez, 24, as he perused Oakland Raiders collectibles at Fay's Co. Sports Apparel and Memorabilia at the mall. "My brother came up from Oceanside (Thursday); I'm sure he's thinking about gas prices."

Economic worries and a soft market

Experts on consumer habits and spending expect holiday shopping growth to be down from the past few years. That's largely because many consumers are nervous about where the economy is heading, even if their own finances are sound.

Judy Thompson, a housing specialist with consumer counseling group ByDesign Financial Solutions in Stockton, said homeowners with loan interest rates set to rise are especially cautious.

"They feel the need to keep trying to make payments," said Thompson, who counsels about overspending on the holiday. "A lot of people are really feeling the housing part of the equation."

One economist predicts holiday sales will grow about 4 percent this year, down from 5 percent last year and 6 percent two years ago.

Bill Hampell, chief economist with the Credit Union National Association, said he bases that belief on what 1,000 respondents said in a nationwide survey about holiday spending plans.

In that survey, done with the Consumer Federation of America, about 36 percent said they would reduce their holiday spending. Thirty-two percent said that last year, compared with 30 percent in the 2005 survey, Hampell said.

"It's going to be pretty soft growth, and retailers know they're selling into a soft market," Hampell said.

Noting the survey's eight-year history, he said shoppers don't always act the same way they respond to questions.

Generally, the percentage of people who say they'll cut back on holiday shopping has been twice as large as those who say they'll spend more. Yet shopping overall has gone up every year, Hampell said.

"The results of this survey were a little negative, but not as negative as I thought they would be," he said. "In the survey's history, we've seen that holiday spending exists apart from discretionary spending."

In Turlock, holiday spending got an early start. Coffee-clutching shoppers were in lines by 3:30 a.m. Friday for stores opening as early as 4.

The Wal-Mart parking lot was full by 3:45 a.m., and a crowd of people waited in the dark for the doors to open. The Kohl's parking lot was full, too; shoppers working in teams held places for one another in the line that snaked through the door.

Most people were chatting and cheerful, despite the hourlong wait for a cashier. No doubt taking advantage of a captive audience, several displays along the line -- from pajamas to holiday candles -- were seeing quite a bit of action.

By contrast, a grocery store stop about 6:30 a.m. found a half-dozen cars in the parking lot and not a single shopper in line for the one operating checkout stand.

Other area shopping centers were busy. At McHenry Village in Modesto, children and their parents could take free horse-drawn wagon rides, courtesy of Wagon Trail Ranch in Oakdale.

Jennifer Perrotti, 51, said she knows times are tight for many families.

"We haven't personally been affected by housing like other people I know," she said, after her family hopped off the wagon. "We're in a good spot, and we're thankful."

At Vintage Faire Mall, Theresa Medeiros and Nicole Cox sported Santa caps with eye-catching decorations as they shopped.

The mother-daughter team said early-bird shopping is a Black Friday tradition for them, and a tough economy didn't change that.

"You think about how everything costs more, but the sad part is that there's nothing you can do," said Medeiros, 52, of Modesto.

Her daughter, a Turlock resident, had a different take.

"We come out for the sales, and maybe, with any luck, we can get all our shopping done," said Cox, 28. "Then we save if we don't have to drive here again."

Bee staff writer Ben van der Meer can be reached at bvandermeer@modbee.com or 578-2331.