McCain can't be ruled out in state

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While the Democratic Party continues its slow self-immolation in primaries back East, some observers are trying to figure what to watch for when the presidential race really begins.

They're trying to decide which way some groups will break in November and decide who the 44th president will be as a result.

Closer to home, there's a spot of speculation as to whether Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, will do what no GOP candidate has done since 1988, or the last time the Summer Olympics were in Asia: Compete in California.

It's not that far-fetched an idea. OK, it's a little far-fetched, but McCain probably is as moderate as any Republican candidate can be without burning the right-wing core of the party.

How would that play out in November? Here are two ways:

IMMIGRATION: Many Republicans mistrust McCain because of his support for immigration reform that would include some form of amnesty for illegal immigrants. In California, and especially in the Central Valley, where undocumented workers make up a large part of the work force, that might gain him some traction.

GLOBAL WARMING: McCain has said he's willing to go further on controlling emissions than the current administration. That fits with California, which has wanted stricter emissions controls than the federal government for years.

Whether McCain's proposals go as far as the state's, though, is another question. Big-money contributors such as auto manufacturers, oil companies and coal mine owners have opposed California's proposals, but they're also more likely to support McCain in what's likely to be an absurdly expensive presidential race.

How such proposals fit with improving air quality will be of key interest in the valley, where reducing asthma rates could be the top public health issue.

If McCain has any advantage on these issues among Golden State voters, it will only be because the Democratic candidate, whoever it is, doesn't beat him to the punch.

But one political observer said Democrats have issues to resolve within their party's core before worrying about the swing voters who are important in the general election.

Robert Huckfeldt, a political science professor at the University of California at Davis, said support for

Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton has cleaved along certain lines.

Obama is supported by blacks as well as more educated whites, while Clinton gets support from blue-collar workers, Latinos and women.

In the general election, Huckfeldt said, it's hard to predict whether either Democrat can capture enough of the other Democrat's supporters to have a solid base.

"The past is certainly a prologue to the future," Huckfeldt said in an e-mail. "But we have no past experience with presidential candidates who are either women or African-Americans. So while the past gives us guidance, this is a very different political environment."

With so many factors at work, pundits have struggled to identify a group or bloc -- think of the soccer moms in 2000 -- that holds the key to victory.

Predictions have said poor white males, Catholics, Latinos and single women are constituencies whose support could tip the balance. And that's assuming that such groups will vote as a bloc, which doesn't even happen within families.

If California is competitive, Stanislaus County could be a flash point for how the state goes. The state Democratic Party crowed last month when registration tipped the county into the blue column for the first time in several years, saying it was a sign of Democrats rallying in an election year.

Brian Brokaw, a spokesman for the California Democratic Party, said the goal is to show those voters that Democrats are listening to their concerns.

"It's incumbent on the local organizations to be out on the streets for Democrats," Brokaw said. "It has to be a ground-up process."

But McCain, not Clinton or Obama, is the only candidate among the three to have visited Modesto, and he's coming to Stockton next month. Even many Stanislaus County Democrats would sooner vote for McCain than share a shot of whiskey with Clinton or bowl a frame with Obama.

Democrats in the state's interior -- and that includes the Northern San Joaquin Valley -- don't bend the state or national party's way in all cases. And they were key to Republican victories in this state, including the elder George Bush's win in 1988, months after the Olympic Games were in South Korea.

Does that mean McCain can win California, with the Beijing Olympics taking place in August?

Until he's got a candidate to run against, the possibility can't be ruled out.

Bee staff writer Ben van der Meer can be reached at bvandermeer@modbee.com or 578-2331.