Cue the sad music at Capitol

By BEN van der MEER
bvandermeer@modbee.com

E-Mail

Comments (0)

Text Size:

tool goes here

To use a metaphor for how California will craft a state budget this year, the orchestra hasn't even finished practicing, but the production is well under way, to mostly bad reviews.

That's another way of saying that well before the governor's "May revise" of the budget, which is a more official kickoff to budget talks, Democrats and Republicans are proposing ideas that play well in headlines but poorly in practice.

Throw in a state deficit of $8 billion, an election year and intrigue in the Northern San Joaquin Valley, and the best way to get a budget may be to hope for an extended Sacramento summer heat wave.

One trial balloon quickly was deflated last week, when Assembly Republicans dumped a proposal by Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez to

tax oil from California and give the revenue to education.

Other ideas have been proposed or will come up, including taxes on big vehicles, taxes on fuel-inefficient vehicles, taxes on the rich

and even bringing back the hated vehicle-license fee. Republicans have backed

Gov. Schwarzenegger's mandate for a 10 percent cut across the board, and some have said more cuts are doable.

But one observer said that until there are updated revenue figures, everyone is playing the old standby "Posturing for Politics." The real budget work is happening behind the scenes.

"Very quietly, there are some serious discussions going on," said Barbara O'Connor, a media and politics professor at California State University, Sacramento.

But expect those discussions to stay quiet until the principals agree on the particulars, she said, because more gets done if no one's screaming about a gored ox. Until then, everyone is playing to their political base.

Part of that does have a purpose: getting elected. The June 3 primary may come before serious budget discussions, but with most legislative districts tilted toward one party, the winners that day will have less reason to worry after that, when budget crafting takes precedence, O'Connor said.

June 3 could be an important day locally and for the state, if a recall of Sen. Jeff Denham, R-Merced, makes the ballot. Denham's stance against an unbalanced budget last year is what helped fuel the recall push, but O'Connor said Denham also has a hard time as a moderate in a state where extreme voices make the headlines in both parties.

If Denham were recalled and replaced with a Democrat, it could make it easier for that party to pass a budget without as much Republican support in the state Senate.

O'Connor is among those who believe the budget may be done earlier than later, if for no other reason than legislators believe that with a budget bound to hurt, it's better to get the pain over with.

"Everybody is aware that there's no place to run and no place to hide," she said.

The trick is to determine what combination of cuts -- and new revenue, whether called fees, taxes or something else -- will get the budget done.

To people on the front lines of state spending, the preference is for action, not rhetoric.

Eric Ramos, medical director at Del Puerto Medical Center in Patterson, said a 10 percent cut to him would mean fewer patients who could see specialists.

Many such doctors already are leery of taking Medi-Cal payments for poorer patients, he said.

"It's frustrating, especially when we put patients' health at risk," Ramos said.

As far as health care is concerned, Ramos said, he would prefer to focus more on prevention than treatment, because even if it was more expensive at first, it would save money down the road.

Politicians could take a similar tack toward the state's seemingly annual budget mess. Many observers, and even a few elected representatives, have noted that the state may in some ways be all but ungovernable, given that California has:

Mandates from ballot initiatives that handicap legislative power

A diverse state with numerous powerful voices that demand a seat at every table

Revenue sources tied to California's boom-and-bust economy

All that might make one say 2008 would be a good time to re-examine state government and see whether there's a way to make it better.

Fat chance, say observers such as O'Connor.

The people who could start that discussion would be ceding some of their power to do so.

And regardless of what cuts come out of this year's budget, don't expect political power to be one of them.

Bee staff writer Ben van der Meer can be reached at bvandermeer@modbee.com or 578-2331.