Monday, Mar. 03, 2008

McNerney could be on Demos' hot seat

When Andy Stone hears from reporters these days, they're often not interested about what his boss, Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Pleasanton, is doing about foreclosures in his district.

Nor do many ask about McNerney's re-election campaign, even though he's in what probably will be one of the hottest races in the state this fall.

Rather, their inquiries have to do with the term "superdelegate." It sounds heroic, though one suspects that few youngsters would pick up a comic book centered around voting blocs and nominating processes.

But for the two U.S. senators vying to be the Democratic presidential nominee, the term superdelegate means a potential savior -- or villain -- of their hopes of higher office.

How relevant the superdelegates are could hinge on Tuesday's primaries, with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign saying Ohio and Texas are must-win contests.

The superdelegate concept emerged almost 30 years ago, evolving from a backlash against old-style "machine" party politics.

A party commission tweaked nominating rules to give greater influence to primary and caucus votes during the campaign and less to party insiders at the convention.

But that ultimately left elected party officials unhappy, because they couldn't prevent an outsider candidate from taking the nomination, which happened in 1972 and 1976.

To prevent that from happening again, the Democratic Party in 1980 created a second tier of delegates who would support a nominee at conventions. Popular votes in primaries and caucuses would account for most delegates; the rest, usually elected officials and well-connected party members, would be superdelegates.

With enough superdelegates supporting a palatable candidate who might not have enough popular-vote delegate support, the thinking went, Democrats could be assured of putting up a viable candidate, rather than one nominated on a fluke.

The superdelegate factor never has come into play, with the Democrats' nominee decided well before the convention. That is, until this year.

Which brings us to Rep. Dennis Cardoza, D-Merced, and McNerney.

Both Democratic congressmen are superdelegates, and both represent portions of the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Because many observers believe that neither Clinton, D-N.Y., nor Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., will have enough delegates to win the nomination, the superdelegates are expected to tip the scales.

Here is where one's sense of democracy (lowercase "d") might get tested. Even though Obama likely will enter the August convention with a delegate lead, most of the superdelegates -- so far -- support Clinton.

That leaves the possibility that Obama will have popular support but lose the nomination. Such a coup, of sorts, would be an intraparty meltdown with echoes of the 2000 presidential election.

And that means Cardoza and McNerney, along with the other 793 superdelegates, are on the hot seat.

Cardoza, having committed to Clinton, is in an easier position. Within his 18th Congressional District, Clinton won easily in the state's Feb. 5 primary, so he can claim to support the will of the voters.

For McNerney, a first-time congressman who represents much of San Joaquin County, things aren't so simple.

McNerney, who hasn't backed a candidate, also lives in a district that backed Clinton. But stretching from the valley to the Bay Area, the 11th Congressional District includes many of the wealthy Bay Area voters who backed Obama.

McNerney's potentially tough re-election bid in November also means that backing the wrong candidate could mean no support, in campaign funds or appearances in the district, from the convention winner.

McNerney's spokesman, Stone, said such considerations aren't on his boss's mind.

"His concern is to be back in the district, working on behalf of his constituents," said Stone, who acknowledged that McNerney has gotten entreaties from Obama's and Clinton's campaigns.

Stone said McNerney won't pledge to back a candidate soon, and Stone wouldn't say whether he'll do it before the convention.

"His mind is on other things," Stone said.

When it comes to the role McNerney plays in presidential politics, though, many will want to know what he says he's not thinking about.

Bee staff writer Ben van der Meer can be reached at bvandermeer@modbee.com or 578-2331.