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Columnists - Columnists: Ben van der Meer

Monday, Jan. 28, 2008

Giuliani has put himself in tight spot

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Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani probably hoped California's primary would be his crowning victory for the Republican presidential nomination.

With his moderate views on many issues and buddy-buddy appearances with Gov. Schwarzenegger, the feisty former prosecutor seemed a good fit to be a golden boy in the Golden State.

Whoops.

It's not that Giuliani won't still get plenty of votes here at the Feb. 5 primary. The problem may be that if Giuliani doesn't do well in Tuesday's Florida primary, his candidacy may be finished.

Though momentum is easy to overrate, the concept explains Giuliani's woes, both in support and fund raising. He didn't campaign much in Iowa and New Hampshire, where the Republican faithful were less likely to support him. He concentrated on Florida.

In the meantime, Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gained momentum in early primaries, at Giuliani's expense.

Now polls show Giuliani trailing those candidates in Florida and California. He's also lagging financially, a troubling sign for competing in media-intensive California.

For state residents who have already pledged to support Giuliani, those struggles are like a ship captain whose boat springs a leak before entering choppy waters.

Last year, Republican candidates designated the delegates they would send to the nominating convention, three in every congressional district.

In California, the GOP apportions delegates on the basis of the vote in each district. So if Giuliani, for example, were to win the 18th District but lose California, the appointed delegates from the 18th would still attend the convention on his behalf.

Lee Boese Jr., a Merced orthodontist and 18th District delegate for Giuliani, agreed that his candidate may have ceded momentum to other would-be nominees.

"I think maybe they should've campaigned more in New Hampshire," Boese said. He backs Giuliani because the former mayor's skill in running left-leaning New York City indicates he can be a centrist president, Boese said.

Another delegate from the 18th, Shannon Picciano of Merced, said she's still optimistic going into Florida's primary, believing that however it turns out, Giuliani will be a contender in California a week later.

"I don't think he's going to give up," said Picciano, a public information officer at Merced College who has worked with former state Sen. Dick Monteith and former Gov. Deukmejian.

If Giuliani does withdraw, she said, that's an accepted danger of aligning with a politician early. "You support them, and not all of them are going to be winners," she said.

Giuliani's meltdown in the race, if it happens, would put Boese and Picciano with plenty of company. The California secretary of state's Web site lists delegates for other also-rans such as Fred Thompson and Alan Keyes.

But supporters like Boese think the real downside isn't that they may have backed a losing candidate. It's that Giuliani's moderate stances -- compared to his rivals, at least, Giuliani qualifies as a moderate -- are the GOP's best shot at keeping the presidency.

"He's the only candidate of the group that could keep it close in California," Boese said, presuming Sen. Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee.

And keeping the race close in California, if it keeps the Democrat from campaigning and spending elsewhere, could be critical for the Republican nominee's chances.

The lesson? Presidential candidates who blow off the early states do so at their peril.

ON ANOTHER NOTE: The series of propositions related to American Indian gambling may puzzle some voters, especially when advertisements for and against them come from ... Indian tribes.

After all, isn't this stuff resolved? Tribes build casinos, we spend money at them, money goes to impoverished tribes and the state, the end.

Well, as long as the appetite for money -- and more California casinos -- keeps growing, it doesn't end.

In the case of Propositions 94 through 97, here's the quick need-to-know primer:

Four tribes have state approval to add more slot machines to casinos.

Other tribes, and rival gambling interests such as racetracks, oppose those four tribes getting a special deal.

If the propositions pass, it gives the four tribes the official green light to add more slot machines and give the state a cut.

All the casinos in these propositions are several hundred miles from the Northern San Joaquin Valley, anyhow.

To comment, click on the link with this story at www.modbee.com.

Bee staff writer Ben van der Meer can be reached at bvandermeer@modbee.com or 578-2331.