Electoral change is hope for GOP

By Ben van der Meer
bvandermeer@modbee.com

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There used to be a phrase to describe a certain breed of California voter: Reagan Democrats.

Those were the moderate-to-conservative members of the Democratic Party who supported President Reagan and the first President Bush in the elections of 1980, 1984 and 1988.

But for many reasons, Republican candidates have written off their chances here ever since.

Now a coalition of reformers -- with funding from state Republicans -- is hoping to make California an important state for the GOP again, by tweaking how electoral votes are apportioned.

If a ballot measure to that end goes before voters next year, and it succeeds, battleground states like Ohio and Michigan could be no more important than some regions of California, such as the moderate Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Let's go back. The proposed measure, called the Electoral Reform California Initiative, is based on similar practices in Nebraska and Maine.

In those states, every congressional district is worth one electoral vote. The candidate who wins the popular vote in a district receives an electoral vote.

Two electoral votes, representing the state's two senators, go to whoever wins the statewide vote.

Here, that would mean California's 55 electoral votes -- the most in the nation -- would be split between the Democrat and the Republican candidates, rather than all going to the state winner.

If that were in play in 2004, President Bush would've gotten 21 electoral votes in California, to Sen. John Kerry's 34. That's one more electoral vote than Bush won in Ohio, which gave him a second term.

The thinking, according to the ballot measure's author, former state Sen. Ray Haynes, is that candidates of both stripes would campaign in California if they think they can pick up electoral votes in some of the congressional districts.

What does that mean for the valley?

Haynes thinks it means candidate visits from both sides.

"California is unique in this country," he said. "Those who like the status quo don't want to work for electoral votes."

Swing parts of the state, such as Modesto, could be attractive to candidates who can't take it for granted, as Democrats discovered to their chagrin back in the 1980s.

State Democrats, predictably, vow to defeat the measure if it makes the June 2008 ballot.

But the proposal may have some other handicaps, as well. Haynes said as many as

10 districts in California are competitive, suggesting they would be the districts candidates from both parties would target.

Realistically, though, those districts are drawn so that in most cases, the party currently representing them stays in power. Since redistricting in 2001, only one congressional seat statewide changed parties, the 11th Congressional District last year.

And the measure doesn't have unanimous support within the Republican Party. Gov. Schwarzenegger has seemed disinclined to support it, and local Republicans said the prospects of it making the state ballot are iffy.

Then there's early polling that shows most voters are cool to or don't support the idea. With statewide propositions, being behind in the polls at the start is considered bad mojo, though Haynes pointed out that 1978's Proposition 13 also started behind but passed in a landslide.

Even if the measure doesn't pass, it may have other value for the Republicans.

State Democrats are flush with cash; but state Republicans, not so much. If Democrats have to pony up to make sure this measure doesn't pass, that could level the playing field somewhat.

With a national presidential race and a handful of state congressional races in play, money thrown at a ballot measure fight is money that can't be spent where the party might need it more.

In a weird way, the proposal could reverse California's standing in presidential politics: Rather than pick up money here, Democrats might have to spend it.

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Bee staff writer Ben van der Meer can be reached at bvandermeer@modbee.com or 578-2331.