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Just-released statistics show how well Stanislaus economy was doing before housing bust

Census data from 2006 used in report on counties

By J.N. SBRANTI
jnsbranti@modbee.com

last updated: June 26, 2008 09:36:12 AM

Just-released Stanislaus County business statistics show a booming economy with employment surging, payrolls expanding and companies multiplying. The U.S. Census Bureau data show good news all around.

Unfortunately, the "new" data is for 2006, and a lot of bad stuff has happened since.

The annual County Business Patterns report, made public today for every county in the nation, provides intricate details about businesses, what they do, how many people they employ and what they pay.

Such figures take years to compile. The problem with that lag time is particularly apparent because the housing crisis has put Stanislaus' economy in a tailspin.

That said, looking at the 2006 business patterns shows just how well the local economy was doing before the housing bubble burst.

Stanislaus employment, for example, swelled by an impressive 25 percent from 1998 to 2006. That was more than double the national rate of 10.9 percent.

The Census Bureau employment statistics only go back to 1998 because that's when it started using the North American Industry Classification System, which divides companies based on the type of work they do.

Stanislaus businesses employed 141,928 people during the second week of March 2006. Nearly 10 percent of those workers were in construction trades. Real estate and lending trades also were booming back then.

These days, by contrast, housing-related fields are suffering because new home construction has slowed to a trickle and many lenders are processing more foreclosures than new mortgages.

The housing market peaked during the winter of 2005-06, so housing-related employment sectors were near record highs during March 2006 when the Census Bureau gathered its data.

How deep job cuts have been since then will be revealed, sector by sector, in future business pattern reports.

Here's what the 2006 report revealed about local business trends:

  • Employment -- Stanislaus companies added more than 6,800 employees to their payrolls in 2006 compared with 2005. That was a 5 percent jump in one year.

    Stanislaus saw significant employment gains in retail trade and health care jobs, and there were big increases in the number of people working for "temporary help services."

    Merced County employment, however, declined by about 100 workers in 2006 compared with the year before. The housing slowdown hit Merced first, so construction employment already had begun falling by March 2006. That's why Merced's businesses employed 0.2 percent fewer people in 2006 than in 2005.

    San Joaquin County employment soared by more than 25 percent from 1998 to 2006. A big part of those gains was in transportation and warehousing jobs, which increased to nearly 13,700 in 2006. That was 70 percent more jobs than in 1998. Nationwide, by comparison, transportation and warehousing employment increased only 24 percent.

  • Business Establishments -- Stanislaus outpaced the state and the nation in the number of employers added to its business ranks. There were 9,126 businesses with employees in 2006, which was 180 more than in 2005. That included 10 new stores selling electronics and appliances, and 10 new supermarkets.

    Stanislaus added 13.7 percent more employers from 1998 to 2006, compared with the national growth rate of 9.5 percent.

    Merced added about 100 businesses in 2006, but over the years it lagged behind national averages for company expansion. In 2006, it reached 3,155 employers, which was only 9 percent more than in 1998.

    San Joaquin showed the most business expansion, 16.4 percent since 1998. Its 11,440 employers included 18 fast food restaurants that opened in 2006.

  • Employee Payroll -- Stanislaus businesses paid their employees more than $4.83 billion in 2006. That was nearly 65 percent more than in 1998. The national increase was less than 45 percent during those years.

    The annual County Business Patterns data was gathered by the Census Bureau from fed- eral records. It excludes self- employed people, employees of private households, railroad employees, agricultural production workers and most government employees.

    The report defines employment as all full- and part-time employees who were on the payroll during the pay period that includes March 12 of any given year.

    To access the data online, go to: www.Census.gov.

    Bee staff writer J.N. Sbranti can be reached at jnsbranti@modbee.com or 578-2196.

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