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Agriculture

Wednesday, Jul. 01, 2009

Growers welcome revised almond crop forecast

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The federal government Tuesday trimmed its estimate of the state's almond crop by 7 percent, welcome news to growers worried about an oversupply.

The 2009 harvest is projected at 1.35 billion pounds, versus 1.45 billion in the first estimate in early May, the National Agricultural Statistics Service said.

The smaller crop could boost grower prices, which plunged early this year but recovered somewhat in the spring.

"This ought to give some traction to prices because, right now, growers are barely breaking even," said Barret Arakelian, field representative for Del Rio Nut Co. near Livingston.

Prices are about $1.50 to $1.70 a pound, he said. That's far less than the nearly $3 average for the 2005 crop but better than the $1 or so in rougher times.

Arakelian was among about 20 industry people who gathered to hear the new projection at the Modesto headquarters of the Almond Board of California, which funds the estimates. As usual, the federal agency waited until the stroke of noon so no one would gain an unfair advantage in the market.

The first crop estimate was based on a telephone survey of 275 growers. Tuesday's figure was from measurements of developing almonds by federal employees who sampled 852 orchards.

Wet weather during the February bloom hampered the bees that pollinate almond trees, said Doug Flohr, a statistician with the agency. A March freeze also reduced the volume, especially in Madera County, he said.

Almond orchards total about 710,000 acres statewide, up 30,000 acres from last year. The average yield per acre is projected at 1,900 pounds, compared with 2,400 last year, when the total harvest was a record 1.63 billion pounds.

"I think (the new projection) will help firm the price," said Dan Cummings, a grower in the Chico area.

He added that almond trees tend to pull back their production after a couple of heavy years.

"They get tired and they need to regroup and rest a little bit," he said.

The 2009 harvest will start in August. Meanwhile, worldwide sales from the 2008 crop continue to improve from a January lull. As of the end of May, they stood at 1.15 billion pounds, up from 1.06 billion at the same point a year earlier, according to the Almond Board.

Industry people said the surge came in part because of reduced prices, which likely will rise as the supply is worked down.

Almonds are second only to milk among farm products in the Northern San Joaquin Valley. The recession has battered the dairy industry, but nut producers could make it through relatively well.

Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board, said the board "looks forward to a very successful crop year in which millions of additional consumers worldwide begin including California almonds in their daily diets."

Bee staff writer John Holland can be reached at jholland@modbee.com or 578-2385.