Fewer 'what ifs' as football playoffs near

By Richard T. Estrada
restrada@modbee.com

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If the Sac-Joaquin Section football playoffs opened Friday, these would be the likely teams and the divisions in which they would play. Leagues get two to three automatic bids, with the remaining teams selected based on total wins. Because of automatic bids, some teams will advance even though they don't have as many wins as teams that will stay home. Stanislaus District teams are in bold.

DIVISION 1 (16-team bracket)

8-0: Tracy
7-1: Vacaville, Nevada Union
6-2: Lincoln-Stockton, Pleasant Grove, Monterey Trail, Sheldon
5-3: Los Banos, Burbank, Oak Ridge, Modesto, Edison, Davis
4-4: Franklin-Elk Grove*, Pitman, Napa*
3-5: Merced, Enochs

Modesto's James Ingram carries the ball forward for a yard gain against Beyer. Oct. 29, 2009. (Brian Ramsay/bramsay@modbee.com)

Don't be surprised if: Merced gets one of the two automatic CCC berths by beating Turlock and Pitman, and Enochs gets one automatic MMC berth — eliminating six-win teams that expected to go on. ... Tracy holds the top seed and is in great position to play in the final if Vacaville and NU hold the 2-3 seeds. ... Los Banos gets in, beating Atwater on Friday or Buhach Colony in the finale, giving CCC four playoff teams — Atwater, Buhach and Merced join the Falcons. ... Davis is in by winning one of its last two, it faces Beyer (1-7) in Week 10, and the Spartans could get a home game if they win both. ... Modesto has a team built for the playoffs, with two talented RBs and a strong receiver, and can get a home playoff opener by beating Downey and Enochs. ... Napa and Franklin are in: Their leagues have three automatic berths. ... Oak Ridge is going to finish 7-3, and no one wants the Trojans: Losses to Grant, Rocklin and Folsom, a combined 23-1 after eight weeks. ... Pitman must beat Merced in Week 10 to advance, and even then it could be a close call.

DIVISION 2 (16-team bracket)

8-0: St. Mary's, Grant, Rocklin
7-1: Del Oro, Folsom
6-2: Tokay, Stagg, Granite Bay, Atwater, Faifield
6-3: Buhach Colony
5-3: Rosemont, Vista del Lago, Christian Brothers
4-4: Sacramento
3-5: Elk Grove*, Woodcreek*
2-6: Laguna Creek*

Don't be surprised if: St. Mary's and Grant finish the regular season as the only unbeaten teams, as Rocklin likely loses to Del Oro this week. Top four seeds: St. Mary's, Grant, Folsom and Del Oro, in that order. ... Atwater wins out to finish 8-2, yet gets to host a first-round playoff game only because it's a league champ. ... Sacramento has two softies on the schedule, so it's in. ... Buhach Colony should be in even if it loses to Los Banos in Week 10, but a win gives Thunder a first-round foe it could beat.

DIVISION 3 (16-team bracket)

8-0: Oakdale, Vanden, Inderkum, Rio Linda
7-1: Sierra, Bella Vista, Del Campo
6-2: Benicia
5-3: Natomas, Casa Roble, Patterson*, Manteca*, Mira Loma, Pioneer
4-4: Rodriguez*, Yuba City

Don't be surprised if: Four teams finish 10-0, since all are favored to win the rest of their games. The tiebreaker is wins by opponents: Oakdale (40), Inderkum (36), Rio Linda (35) and Vanden (29). If those numbers hold, they'd be seeded in that order with the top two hosting semifinal games if they go that far. ... Sierra is 8-2 at worst, 9-1 if it beats Oakdale on Friday, and in position to host a home game regardless. Manteca will be 7-3 and on the bubble for hosting a game. If Oakdale is the top seed, Manteca won't be 8 or 9 — the section won't let these two have their rematch in the second round. ... Patterson has clinched a berth and will go to Oakdale or Sierra, whichever VOL team has the higher seed, because of travel considerations. ... If D2 is the section's best bracket, this group is second-best with eight quality teams at 6-2 or better.