Surge has not reduced civilian attacks, GAO finds

Independent study at odds with White House reports

By RENEE SCHOOF and WARREN P. STROBEL
BEE WASHINGTON BUREAU

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WASHINGTON - The surge of additional U.S. troops in Iraq has failed to curtail the violence against Iraqi civilians, an independent government agency reported Tuesday.

Citing data from the Pentagon and other U.S. agencies, the Government Accountability Office found that daily attacks against civilians in Iraq have remained "about the same" since February, when the United States began sending nearly 30,000 additional troops to improve security in Iraq.

The GAO also found that the number of Iraqis fleeing violence in their neighborhoods is increasing, with as many as 100,000 Iraqis a month leaving their homes in search of safety.

The GAO's conclusions contradict repeated assertions by the White House and the Pentagon in advance of the coming congressional debate on whether to stay the course in Iraq or to begin some withdrawal of U.S. troops.

Neither a July report from the White House nor a report last month from 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, however, provided any statistics to support their claims that the surge has improved security. The GAO report, in contrast, includes charts showing the number of attacks against Iraqi civilians, Iraqi security forces and U.S. troops. Only attacks against U.S. troops have declined in recent weeks.

In testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday, U.S. Comptroller General David S. Walker, who heads the GAO, said he couldn't vouch for charts that Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., said Army Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, had shown him during a recent congressional visit to Iraq. Coleman said those charts showed a decrease in violence.

"Let's just say that there are several different sources within the administration on violence, and those sources do not agree. So I don't know what Gen. Petraeus is giving you," Walker said.

Most goals left unaccomplished

When President Bush announced in January that he'd dispatch more troops, he said the goal was to cut sectarian violence so the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki could work out political compromises on key issues among Iraq's rival religious and ethnic groups.

Supporters and opponents of the surge now agree on at least one thing: Al-Maliki has been unable to bring about those agreements. So does the GAO. Its report found that of the 18 benchmarks Iraq's government set for itself, three have been met, four have been partially met and 11 haven't been met.

"Overall, key legislation has not been passed, violence remains high and it is unclear whether the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion in reconstruction funds," the report said.

The GAO said it couldn't determine whether sectarian violence in Iraq is down "because measuring such violence requires understanding the perpetrator's intent, which may not be known."

But the report said it was possible to assess the daily number of attacks against civilians. A chart showed that those attacks have remained relatively constant throughout 2007, despite the additional U.S. troops. The GAO referred a request for precise numbers to the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Army Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq, acknowledged the controversy over the numbers in comments to reporters in Baghdad on Tuesday. But he said that violent incidents in Iraq are at their lowest point in 15 months this week.

"There's been some controversies about civilian casualties," Odierno said. "Ours still see it as below what it was. We think we're making progress."

The GAO said that the Pentagon disagreed with its conclusion that there was no discernible trend in violence and provided the agency with addi- tional data. But the GAO said it wasn't convinced and didn't change its conclusion.