Signs of life in economy as Stanislaus jobless rate drops

pguerra@modbee.comMay 17, 2013 

EC Job Fair04

ED CRISOSTOMO/ecrisostomo@modbee.com Hundreds line up to apply during a job fair at the Stanislaus County Fair grounds on Thursday afternoon (04-18-13) in Turlock, CA.

ED CRISOSTOMO — The Modesto Bee Buy Photo

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    Bio: Patty Guerra has been an editor and reporter at The Modesto Bee for 13 years. She has a journalism degree from Fresno State and previously worked at the Turlock Journal and Merced Sun-Star.
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— More people are finding jobs these days, but plenty of folks are still looking.

Stanislaus County's unemployment rate continues to drop, though it remains well above state and national averages. According to numbers released by the Employment Development Department on Friday, April's unemployment rate was 13.4 percent, down from a revised 14.5 percent in March.

A year ago, the estimate was 15.8 percent. Drops year-over-year signal growth in the economy.

To the south, Merced's unemployment rate for April was 15.5 percent, compared with a revised 17.2 percent the previous month and 18.0 percent in April 2012.

Nationally, the unemployment rate for April was 7.1 percent, with California seeing a rate of 8.5 percent.

"Overall, they weren't huge numbers, but we did have some positive increases," said EDD labor market analyst Nati Martinez. "That is great to see."

Martinez pointed out that this year's rate was the lowest seen for April since 2008, the year the bottom dropped out of the economy and things everywhere went south in a hurry.

Gökçe Soydemir, professor of business economics at California State University, Stanislaus, likened the situation to falling into a deep hole and then slowly climbing out.

"You're nowhere (near) where you should be, but you're making progress," he said.

Manufacturing and construction showed improvement. Soydemir said that's evident in the building going on in the area after years of mostly hammers-down conditions.

"It wasn't visible before," he said. "But now, going out in the streets, if you drive by these new areas where houses are being built, there is a lot of activity there."

Soydemir said that figures show fewer homeowners falling behind in their mortgages, indicating that consumers "feel better about their prospects."

But he cautioned that the effects of the federal government budget cuts that recently were enacted have yet to be seen.

"As that continues, most likely it's going to put a drag on the economic recovery," he said.

Nationally, 40 states reported lower unemployment rates, with increases in only three: Louisiana, Tennessee and North Dakota. Rates were unchanged in seven states.

California, New York and South Carolina all reported the largest unemployment rate declines in April. Each state's rate fell by 0.4 percentage points.

The report said 30 states added jobs in April, while 18 reported fewer jobs.

Nationwide, employers added 165,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell to a four-year low of 7.5 percent.

The economy has added an average of 208,000 jobs a month since November. That's up from only 138,000 a month in the previous six months.

Overall, Soydemir said, there is cause for cautious optimism. Even government, which typically lags far behind the public sector in recovering, is showing some signs of life.

"For the first time since the recession, we started seeing improvement in all categories of employment," he said. "That's an important thing to note."

Breaking News Editor Patty Guerra can be reached at pguerra@modbee.com or (209) 578-2343.

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