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Wednesday, Oct. 24, 2012

PREP FOOTBALL: Playoff Projections, Week 8

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-- MMC: Downey (7-1, 4-0) is in, and Enochs (5-4, 4-1) or Beyer (4-4, 3-1) will join them. Beyer is facing an all-or-nothing situation: The Patriots will miss the playoffs, or likely go in as a tri-champ. Downey and Beyer are big favorites this week. In Week 10, Enochs is a heavy favorite over Davis and Beyer has Downey — a Beyer upset leaves the three tied at 5-1. Each would have at least six overall wins and all would advance, Beyer and Enochs to Division 1, and Downey likely being pushed down to D2.

CCC: Buhach Colony (6-2, 3-0) hasn’t lost a conference game in three years and no reason to believe it’s losing this fall. BC and Atwater (6-2, 2-1) have berths, while Merced (5-3, 2-1) and Pitman (6-2, 1-2) can lock up spots with a win. Both are good bets: Each has last-place Golden Valley remaining. BC and Atwater are D2, and Pitman and Merced will be D1. Turlock must beat BC and Pitman or it will not be invited.

VOL: Oakdale (7-1, 5-0) and Sierra (7-1, 4-1) have clinched D3 berths. Manteca (5-3, 4-1) can join them with a win vs. Oakdale or East Union. Don’t look for more than three from here: Weston Ranch (4-4, 2-3) likely falls to Sierra in Week 10, and won’t have six wins.

WAC: Central Catholic (6-2, 4-0) and Los Banos (7-1, 3-1) are in the D4 bracket, and Patterson (6-2, 3-1) is in D3. Pacheco (5-4, 3-2) one of the first 5-5 teams if .500 qualifies for a playoff berth. That’s likely it for the WAC, as Central Valley, Pacheco or Livingston would need to beat LB or Central Catholic for a sixth win.

TVL: Four teams are guaranteed spots, and a fifth will go if Hughson (4-4, 1-3) upsets Hilmar (6-3, 2-3) in the finale. Ripon (9-0, 5-0), Escalon (6-2, 3-1) and Hilmar are in — and the winner of Orestimba (5-3, 1-3) at Modesto Christian (5-3, 3-1) in Week 10 gets in as an at-large school with six overall wins. Orestimba and MC are underdogs to Ripon and Escalon, respectively, and Hughson is expected to overcome last-place Riverbank this weekend. If Orestimba beats MC, and MC finishes 5-5, it could qualify if .500 teams are .500 teams are considered for the playoffs. All TVL teams will play D4.

MLL: The foothill league expects four teams to advance: Argonaut (8-0, 3-0), Calaveras (7-1, 3-0) and Amador (7-1, 2-1) are in; Summerville (6-2, 1-2) must beat Amador Friday or last-place Linden in Week 10 to earn a second league win.

SL: Le Grand (7-1, 5-0) and Waterford (6-2, 4-1) are in D5, and Ripon Christian (6-2, 4-1) will be in D6. Don’t expect a fourth qualifier, as no one else in the SL is going to finish over .500.

CCAA: Brookside (6-2, 3-0) and Elliot (6-2, 2-1) have D6 berths, while Big Valley (3-5, 2-1) has a must-win game with Elliot Friday it hopes to join them from the all-Christian league.

— RICHARD T. ESTRADA