Stanislaus County voter numbers expected to remain low

An assortment of city, school board and district elections will be decided Tuesday when people cast their ballots in Stanislaus County.

Voter participation in odd-year elections tends to be disappointing, but certain issues seem to have generated interest in some local races.

In Modesto, four candidates have their sights on the mayor's office and the city is holding its second round of council district elections after switching to that process in 2009.

Voters will choose a council member for the first time in districts 1, 3 and 6, and are poised to fill a two-year term in District 5.

The four council races are winner-takes-all, but the contest to choose Mayor Jim Ridenour's successor will result in a run-off in February if the top candidate doesn't get more than 50 percent of votes cast.

As city and state officials debate public employee pension reform across California, Modesto is asking voters for their opinion on three pension proposals. Besides those nonbinding measures, other initiatives would update Modesto's utility tax ordinance and ask whether sewer service should be extended to the Rouse-Colorado neighborhood.

In other races, the budget crisis is foremost on the minds of nine contenders seeking three seats on the Modesto City Schools board.

Two seats are being contested on the Modesto Irrigation District board as officials consider water sales to San Francisco, Oakdale residents will vote on a half-cent sales tax for city services, and city council races will be decided in Ceres.

One seat is contested on the Stanislaus County Board of Education, and elections are being held in the Sylvan Unified, Turlock, Ceres, Patterson, Riverbank, Oakdale and Empire school districts.

Turnout for odd-year local government elections typically ranges from 20 percent to 25 percent in Stanislaus County. One expert doubted that will change dramatically this year.

"It's usually your core, habitual voters who come out for local elections," said Stephen Nicholson, a UC Merced political science professor and scholar on ballot initiatives.

He acknowledged the pension advisory measures in Modesto could bring out some additional voters, because of the media coverage and money spent on advertising to oppose the measures.

"My guess is it's not going to be a huge effect," Nicholson said. "Mostly (ballot measures) don't affect turnout, and the ones that do oftentimes deal with social issues such as abortion rights or gay marriage."

Lee Lundrigan, county registrar of voters, estimated at least 70 percent of voters in the election will cast their ballots by mail. As of Friday, the elections office had received 28,862 vote-by-mail ballots, compared with almost 50,000 returned four days before the midterm election in 2010. There are 227,278 eligible voters in Stanislaus County.

Election workers remove the ballots from envelopes, flatten them and start running them through the machines in preparation for the count, Lundrigan said, although no one hits the tally button before 8 p.m. Tuesday.

Lundrigan warned it's getting late for dropping ballots in the mailbox. County elections does not count any ballots received after the polls close Tuesday night. Those waiting until the last minute can deliver their mail ballots to any polling place Tuesday, she said.

Bee staff writer Ken Carlson can be reached at kcarlson@modbee.com or (209) 578-2321.