Posted on Sun, Oct. 16, 2011

Most city leaders throughout Stanislaus County are consulting their growth policies as logical starting points for drawing the growth limits they hope to put before voters next year.

The notion that people could choose their destinies appeals to those who have argued against paving over a breadbasket for the United States and beyond.

But some controlled-growth advocates are increasingly uneasy with how the landmark initiative is shaping up, saying lines on a map won't mean much if they protect sprawl at historic rates.

"Stanislaus seems on the verge of great things," said Ed Thompson, state director for American Farmland Trust. "They're thinking about the right things. But if the lines assume you're going to sprawl as usual, the question is whether the lines mean anything at all."

Each of the county's nine cities has the job of producing urban growth boundaries beyond which they could not grow before 2050. Voter approval could be sought throughout the county in the summer.

Almost all cities began the dialogue with their respective general plans, documents designed to guide growth in the next decadeor two.

A Bee review of general plans showed that, on average, the cities would more than double in size if those areas are developed. Total urbanized area would triple if added to growth plans for unincorporated towns, which would not be subject to next year's initiative.

Some cities are much more aggressive. Newman, for example, would grow nearly eight times its size under its general plan; Oakdale would balloon more than nine times and would be far larger than Modesto is now.

Patterson and Waterford would nearly triple and Ceres would more than double.

Officials with several cities said general plans are rooted in logic and often are generated with plenty of public input.

"That is the overriding policy document," said J.D. Hightower, Riverbank's development services director. His city's Planning Commission will take up the matter Tuesday.

"We're fine with those boundaries," Hightower said, echoing the approach of most cities. "I don't see us coming close to those boundaries."

Based on status quo?

Denny Jackman, the county's biggest name in controlled growth, refers to maps being circulated as "sprawl assurance plans" based on the status quo.

"They have the audacity to call it ag preservation," he said.

Jackman, a former Modesto councilman, wrote and championed Measure E, a 2008 countywide initiative embraced by voters that directs subdivisions away from farmland. He believes officials are crafting the current measure because he threatened to spend $10,000 promoting growth boundaries if they didn't take action.

Having studied maps emerging from each city, based largely on general plans, Jackman questions whether officials secretly hope the plans are too radical to appeal to voters. Leaders "are just in outer space on this," he said.

Not all, though.

Hughson leaders considered their general plan boundary but recognized that on paper, it could allow that city to abut Ceres. So Hughson City Council members shrank their 2050 vision to the city's sphere of influence, a line beyond the city limit but far shorter than the general plan's limit.

"If you look at the general plan, that's huge," said Mayor Ramon Bawana. "That's miles out there. The sphere of influence is more realistic."

Ceres planning commissioners apparently respected that reasoning and reduced their eastern line by a quarter mile, effectively guaranteeing a healthy swath of farmland between the two cities for at least four decades, if voters agree. The City Council is scheduled to review Ceres' map Oct. 24.

Jackman, past president of the Farmland Working Group, applauded Hughson's rationale, saying spheres of influence would protect far more farmland.

Turlock's general plan update is in progress and more progressive than most in the valley, calling for higher densities. For example, growth areas would require 8.5 units per acre rather than the historic 5.6.

"We are moving in a direction of preserving farmland by encouraging the city to grow in a pattern that results in less consumption of ag land," said Debbie Whitmore, Turlock's deputy planning director.

Mayor draws her own map

Oakdale, however, is considering a map drawn by Mayor Pat Paul that bears little resemblance to that city's general plan. It juts far to the southeast, where officials hope to build the North County Corridor.

"I thought, 'I'll put (limit lines) as far out as I can,' " Paul said, acknowledging "crazy lines" that are "almost absurd."

"I appreciate trying to protect farmland," she said, "and we have got pretty bad soil to the east."

Oakdale City Council members will consider the map Monday.

Newman planning commissioners and the Waterford City Council, both basing maps on their general plans, will review proposals Thursday and Nov. 3, respectively.

Patterson Mayor Luis Molina ran into rough sledding with his council. An item on the consent agenda, typically rubber-stamped without discussion, would have referred the matter to the city's Planning Commission, but his was the only "yes" vote.

"We are his colleagues, not his sidekicks," said Patterson Councilwoman Annette Smith, objecting to the nine mayors collaborating with what she sees as limited input.

Said Molina: "I think some people may have missed the point. I'd like to get feedback from the Planning Commission and public as a whole. It's disappointing the council members didn't want to have that dialogue."

Neither the mayor nor his planning staff seemed to know the next step. Molina said he's waiting for the next meeting of the nine mayors, scheduled for Nov. 9, when all cities are supposed to have formalized proposals.

It's not clear what might happen if a city refuses to propose a growth boundary.

Modesto Mayor Jim Ridenour said he hopes Patterson will come around "after they learn more what it's really all about." He says the initiative would guarantee no building on 86,000 acres of farmland outside boundaries, "which is more than anybody has tried to do ever before."

No more 'grow, grow, grow'

Modesto's Planning Commission and the council's economic development committee scheduled a joint meeting Monday to discuss the city's proposal. Its general plan includes Salida, by far the county's largest unincorporated town; Turlock's includes Denair and Keyes.

John Sanders, a Modesto planning commissioner, said people "need to get away from the feeling of grow, grow, grow. More money in the city's coffer is not a good reason to do it. We all know agriculture is the lifeblood of this area."

"I think the populace is beginning to realize something needs to be done," Sanders continued, noting various advisory votes that lined up against sprawl. "People are saying, 'We don't want it.' Well, we'd better have the guts to make some tough decisions."

Thompson, of the American Farmland Trust, said, "Drawing relatively firm lines is one of the most effective things a community can do to save farmland."

He pointed to communities in Marin and Napa counties as well as Maryland and Pennsylvania. Hughson briefed its leaders on urban limits in Oregon, calling it "a fantastic concept" that could be replicated here.

All successful efforts feature boundaries that have lasted decades, but they also promote conservation easements allowing landowners to enjoy equity by paying them to continue farming, Thompson said.

Brent Sinclair, Modesto's director of community and economic development, said "now is the perfect time" to consider long-range plans. "With development activity low, these are the types of activities we should be engaged in."

Bee staff writer Garth Stapley can be reached at gstapley@modbee.com or (209) 578-2390.