Valley Crime Rate Mixed

While the state's recently released "Crime in California 2010" report shows there's been an encouraging drop in nearly every crime category, that hasn't been the case in the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

There was an up-and-down mix of criminal activity last year in Stanislaus, Merced and San Joaquin counties, according to California Department of Justice statistics.

Example: Homicides dropped7.8 percent statewide during 2010, and they were down a mathematically impressive37 percent in Stanislaus. But Stanislaus looked good primarily because 2009 was a particularly murderous year for the county.

Looking at just one crime category, such as homicides, could be misleading when trying to determine overall safety in one area, said retired criminology Professor John Phillips, who taught at the University of the Pacific for nearly 32 years.

"If you look just at one crime and not another, you're kind of cherry-picking," Phillips said.

Deadly violence seemingly shifted north into San Joaquin County last year, where homicides rose

23.5 percent. For Merced and Tuolumne counties, the number of homicides remained the same in 2010 as it was in 2009.

Phillips said homicides can simply be based on luck, resulting with one county's spike in murders while a neighboring county experiences a drop.

Stanislaus County Sheriff Adam Christianson said there are efforts to reduce the motives for homicides, including raising domestic violence awareness, drug seizures and gang suppression operations.

He said stopping a homicide shortly before it happens is not possible. "You can't predict or prevent homicides," Christianson said.

Modesto slayings dropped 42 percent and gang-related deaths fell from nine to four in 2010, said Modesto police Chief Mike Harden. Enforcement efforts targeting "the worst" homicide perpetrators have helped in reducing the number of murders, he said.

The state's year-to-year crime numbers are reflective of their communities, Phillips said. He looks at data from FBI national survey of crime victims that reports similar findings to the state analysis.

The overall crime rate actually has been dropping across the country and the state over the past decade, Phillips said, but the same can't be said about the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

"We haven't benefited from the general decline in crime," Phillips said. "Why us? I've never quite figured that one out."

The failing economy has affected everyone else across the state and the country. Other regions throughout the state are affected by the same kind of gang or drug-related crimes.

Phillips said the usual explanations just don't seem to produce any answers for why the valley seems to do worse than the rest of the state.

Rapes and robberies dropped significantly statewide last year, but those crimes were up in Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties, according to state officials.

Phillips said criminologists and law enforcement agencies may need to look at how many crime suspects in the valley are from other areas of the state or country, "but that's just a guess."

Harden said analysis of crime data identified a spike in 2010 robberies, which were mostly street robberies of personal belongings and cash. He said the department responded with enforcement and public awareness that had produced a decline as of July.

Vehicle thefts decreased throughout California, but they increased in Stanislaus and Merced counties.

"That doesn't mean that the community is any less safe," Christianson said. "We do see variables in the crime rate that can be fueled by a variety of factors."

Recently, a sheriff's deputy recovered a stolen vehicle in Empire that was taken from Hughson because the owner left the keys in the ignition, Christianson said. Creating opportunities for thieves can result in a spike in crime.

"Lock it down, chain it down," Christianson said. "Don't leave your car running unattended, don't leave your purse in the front seat."

In Modesto, vehicle thefts dropped 48 percent when comparing July 2011 with July 2010. "We're hoping that it's trending downward."

Violent crimes as a whole declined 1.8 percent in Stanislaus. But the state figures show nearly one in 200 Stanislaus residents was a victim of a violent crime last year.

About one in 126 San Joaquin residents was a violent crime victim, as was about one in 180 Merced residents and one in 462 Tuol-umne residents. Statewide, about one in 237 Californians was a victim of violent crime in 2010.

Phillips said a lot of people are predicting a dramatic rise in crime next year after the latest round of budget cuts has continued to decimate law enforcement agencies across the state. Accurately predicting the crime rate, however, can be an impossible task.

"I hate to think what we're going to see next year," Phillips said. "But I could be wrong."

Bee staff writer Rosalio Ahumada can be reached at rahumada@modbee.com or (209)578-2394.