Stanislaus County has long been a health services hub for the Northern San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada foothills.
Although the sluggish economy has health care in a holding pattern, it appears the region's health care industry is positioned for growth and job creation in the future.
In Stanislaus County, more than 20,000 people work in health care, about 10 percent of the active civilian work force, according to the state Employment Development Department.
Looking five to 10 years ahead, industry leaders see several positive signs:
• Hospitals are committed to graduate medical education.
• The area has good prospects for population growth.
• Health care reform will give thousands of uninsured county residents the ability to pay for treatment.
Some challenges, however, threaten to stymie growth in the health care sector:
• Lack of access to needed capital
• A shortage of health care providers
• Uncertainty about funding for a medical school at the University of California at Merced
"I think the door is wide open to expanding services," said John Sigsbury, chief executive officer of Emanuel Medical Center in Turlock.
The 209-bed hospital serves Turlock as well as residents of the West Side and northern Merced County. In recent years, it has invested in cancer and cardiac treatment facilities so residents don't have to go elsewhere for care.
Sigsbury said the new cardiac catheterization lab unveiled this month required the hospital to add highly paid employees trained in cardiac intervention and radiology.
He said the proposed medical school at UC Merced would create a center for medical education and research. It also would be an effective tool for recruiting physicians to establish practices in the valley.
"The students will be here for four years of medical school and then be in residency for three to five years," he said. "If they are in the community that long, they become established socially, they get married and have children, and that is when they stay in the community."
Despite a lack of state funding, the plan to create the medical school by 2020 is considered a realistic goal.
Officials are in discussion with UC Davis to develop a medical education program initially, with students spending part of their time there and doing clinical rotations at facilities in the San Joaquin Valley.
Brandy Ramos Nikaido, a UC Merced spokeswoman for medical school planning, said a study estimated that the valley lost $845 million in health care revenue in 2005 because of people leaving the area for treatment.
"You only need to think about the potential of keeping those dollars in our region when UC Merced has an independent medical school," she said.
Emanuel isn't waiting to get involved with medical education. In July, 15 medical students from Touro University of Vallejo will do clinical training at Emanuel. The hospital is discussing a similar arrangement with a medical school in Arizona.
In Modesto, Doctors Medical Center, Memorial Medical Center and Kaiser Permanente formed a consortium last year to support the Valley Family Medicine Residency Program. The three-year county program trains 30 residents to serve as primary care doctors.
The consortium would like the program to expand and offer other kinds of training.
"We hope to someday have 60 to 80 medical residents in our community," said Denny Litos, chief executive officer of Doctors. "We definitely have to recruit more physicians. A fair amount of the doctors in the community are 55 and over, or 60 and over, and are still practicing."
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