Golden Era for Vaccines

MARIETTA, Pa. — Malaria. Tuberculosis. Alzheimer's disease. AIDS. Pandemic flu. Genital herpes. Urinary tract infections. Grass allergies. Traveler's diarrhea. You name it, the pharmaceutical industry is working on a vaccine to prevent it.

Many could be on the market in five years or less.

Contrast that with five years ago, when so many companies had abandoned the vaccine business that half the U.S. supply of flu shots was lost because of contamination at one of the two manufacturers left.

Vaccines are no longer a sleepy, low-profit niche in a booming drug industry. Today, they're starting to give ailing pharmaceutical makers a shot in the arm.

The lure of big profits, advances in technology and growing government support has been drawing in new firms, from nascent biotechs to Johnson & Johnson. That means recent remarkable strides in overcoming dreaded diseases and annoying afflictions likely will continue.

"Even if a small portion of everything that's going on now is successful in the next 10 years, you put that together with the last 10 years (and) it's going to be characterized as a golden era," said Emilio Emini, Pfizer Inc.'s head of vaccine research.

Vaccines now are viewed as a crucial path to growth, as drug makers look for ways to bolster slowing prescription medicine sales amid intensifying generic competition and government pressure to cut prices under the federal health overhaul.

Unlike medicines that treat diseases, vaccines help prevent infections by revving up the body's natural immune defenses against invaders. They are made from viruses, bacteria or parts of them that have been killed or weakened so they generally can't cause an infection.

Investment in partnerships and other deals to develop and make vaccines has been on a tear — and accelerating since the swine flu pandemic began. Billions in government grants are bringing better, faster ways to develop and make vaccines.

Rising worldwide emphasis on preventive health care, plus the advent of the first multibillion-dollar vaccines, have further boosted their appeal.

Sales skyrocketing

While prescription drug sales are forecast to rise by a third in five years, vaccine sales should double, from $19 billion last year to $39 billion in 2013, according to market research firm Kalorama Information. That's five times the $8 billion in vaccine sales in 2004.

"What was essentially 25 years ago a rounding error now has become real money," said Robin Robertson, director of the U.S.Biomedical Advanced Research Development Authority.

That jump stems from a couple of blockbuster vaccines and rising use of existing ones. The government's list of recommended vaccines for children has more than doubled since 1985 to 17.

It also calls for a half-dozen vaccines for everyone 18 and older and up to four more for some adults.

The past decade brought breakthrough vaccines against pneumococcal disease and rotavirus — two of the world's top killers — meningitis, cervical cancer and more.

Better technology to create and mass-produce vaccines is bringing progress in preventing tropical dengue fever and new threats including MRSA and C. difficile, even ending addiction to cocaine and nicotine. Success on some vaccines in development, particularly for Alzheimer's and AIDS, likely would bring billions a year in sales.

This fall and early next year, the swine flu vaccines are expected to bring their makers at least a few billion extra dollars.

That's despite the five manufacturers for the United States not being able to meet an optimistic plan to first make seasonal flu shots and then produce 120 million doses of swine flu vaccine by mid-October. But they are steadily catching up.