Experts say valley jobs will take years to rebound

This Labor Day, while many in the Northern San Joaquin Valley are grateful to have a day off, many others would do anything to have a day of work.

With the unemployment rate hovering in the high teens in most valley counties, economic forecasters can offer only cold comfort with predictions of several more months of job losses before the trend starts to gradually turn around.

"I think a year from now we're going to be talking about unemployment rates similar to what we have now," said Jeff Michael, director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.

"I think we'll see our peak in unemployment this winter and start to improve a little from there. We'll start to have conversations about employment growth. But in terms of really getting back to where we were before the recession, we're looking at years -- maybe 2013, 2014."

In Stanislaus County, the jobless rate was 16.3 percent for July with 39,800 people unemployed, according to the state Employment Development Department.

Stanislaus and most of its surrounding counties well outpaced the state's record-setting unemployment rate of 11.9 percent for July.

Go to any job fair booth or ask any human resources director what the employment picture is like and they will tell you the number of applicants for each opening is overwhelming.

In April, soy milk production and packaging manufacturer SunOpta Inc. received 980 applications for 30 openings at its new Modesto plant.

Job seekers are faced with impersonal online applications and few call backs.

"One position I applied for had 140 applicants and I'm finding that typical wherever I go," said Ceres resident Mike Martin, while looking for work at a recent Modesto job fair. "It's really frustrating. I look at the stock market and I see some things recovering. But from a grass-roots level, I don't see any recovery yet."

California's recovery is further complicated by the state's budget crisis and cuts to such traditionally stable fields as education and government.

A report released Sunday by the nonpartisan, nonprofit California Budget Project shows that the past two years of job losses have wiped out the four previous years of job gains statewide. Some 950,000 nonfarm jobs have been lost, setting the state back to its 2000 employment level.

"This downturn stands apart from prior recessions for both the breadth and depth of job losses," said Alissa Anderson, deputy director for the California Budget Project, which advocates for the state's working families. "Nearly all major sectors have lost jobs in this recession. Jobs are just really hard to come by right now."

If, as expected, the valley follows its seasonal hiring patterns there should be another dip in employment by October lasting through the winter as farm work and accompanying manufacturing jobs shut down.

Nanette Potter, Central Valley regional manager for the state Employment Development Department, said most economic forecasters don't predict a significant pickup in employment until 2010. But because the valley is in a deeper rut than the rest of the state, it will take it longer to come out.

Still, the jobless rate hasn't matched its record-high from the last major recession when Stanislaus County hit 19.7 percent unemployment in February 1993.

Potter said each industry came out of that recession differently, with manufacturing leading the way later that same year and farming and construction lagging behind until 1995 and 1996, respectively.