Modesto's election rests in the hands of a few

Modesto's first district elections will usher in a new era, with voters choosing City Council candidates from their own neighborhoods.

That won't be the only change to city politics. It's likely that at least one candidate in this year's race could win a council seat with just a few hundred votes.

That's what a look at voter history and demographics reveals.

Each of Modesto's six districts contains about 35,000 people. The district boundaries are new, so painting an accurate picture of who lives and votes in each area is difficult. Only voters in Districts 2, 4 and 5 will go to the polls in the fall.

Political consultants produced estimates of each district's voter history and demographics for The Bee. Burbank-based Political Data Inc. and Modesto's Pathways Inc. used voter rolls, recent census figures and other sources, then laid the numbers over district maps.

The bottom line: There are similarities and a few stark disparities between who lives and who is likely to vote in each district.

Most striking is the gulf between District 2 in southwest and downtown Modesto and the rest of the city. Modesto's five other council districts each have about 15,000 to 17,000 registered voters. District 2 has about 10,000.

Turnout among voters who live in District 2 is dismal. During Modesto's last odd-year election, in November 2007, 10 percent of voters in what is now District 2 cast ballots. Turnout in the rest of the city was about 20 percent.

School board and Modesto Irrigation District races could mean a slight uptick in voting, but this fall's election is expected to see turnout similar to two years ago.

That means about 1,000 voters could vote in the District 2 council race between Dave Geer and Al Nava.

"I've been to pep rallies that are twice that big," Modesto political consultant Don Langman said.

His analysis of voting patterns shows that District 2 has 788 so-called likely voters. Those are people who voted in at least four of the last five elections. By contrast, District 5, in north-central Modesto, has about 2,925 such voters.

If District 2's turnout is just as weak this fall, it could leave a bad taste in the mouths of those who pushed for district elections, Langman said.

"Yes, (the winning candidate) is going to represent their little fiefdom, but they're also going to be one of seven votes making decisions affecting a city of 250,000 people," he said.

To get voters to the polls, candidates should focus on issues that are near and dear to District 2 residents' hearts, said Sandra Lucas, a leading Stanislaus County Democrat.

"You need to find an issue to hook 'em to get them to the polls," she said. "Both candidates need to clearly define what they can do for that area."

Geer apparently is trying that strategy. His candidate statement, which voters will see in their sample ballot, mentions fixing District 2's road and sidewalks. Nava, his opponent, didn't submit a candidate statement.

District 2's expected low turnout means a candidate's roots in the area could go a long way, said Doug Johnson of National Demographics, who advised the city commission that drew the voting districts. That could give a boost to Geer, who says he's lived in District 2 for 22 years. Nava moved there in May.

"You certainly have an advantage if you already know 200 people in the district and there are only 800 people voting," Johnson said.

Absentee voters are key

No matter which district you live in, chances are you're an absentee voter. About 80 percent of Modesto voters cast their ballots by mail.