Don't look at just the numbers

The recession is over.

The recession isn't over.

The recession is nearing the bottom.

The recession isn't going away until 2010, maybe 2011.

These are just some of the analyses that surface in reports, surveys and forecasts about the U.S. economy, giving people all kinds of mixed signals.

The most recent economic studies suggest that things are getting better because they're "not as bad as expected." That was true with some national employment numbers, gasoline prices and even the trade deficit.

Essentially, what analysts are saying is that the economy is finally showing some signs of life. But that's a long way from declaring an end to the recession. In the zeal to move beyond all the gloom and doom surrounding the economy, it's easy to get excited about anything that can be construed as positive, even not-as-bad-as-expected conclusions.

That's OK. It's going to take all kinds of silver linings to rebuild the public's confidence and get things moving.

The key for most folks is not to get too excited or too upset with the reports that either disappoint or uplift. Besides maintaining a balanced view, people need to look carefully at what's going on around them and how that's reflected in numbers from as close to home as possible: region, county, city, neighborhood.

For example, the national employment rate is a staggering 8.9 percent. But in Stanislaus County, that number is 17.5 percent. Having 14 million people out of work in the nation is going to be a drag on the economy everywhere, but having almost one in five Stanislaus residents -- friends and neighbors -- unemployed means the valley has much farther to go to dig out. The longer it takes, the tougher it is on individuals and businesses.

The Stanislaus County Economic Development and Workforce Alliance recently completed its annual economic outlook survey and got some interesting responses.

The unscientific computer survey found that 25.3 percent of the 174 respondents see the U.S. economy recovering by March 2010, 12.1 percent said by June 2010, 24.7 percent said later than June 2010. The rest thought a recovery could come by this June or later this year.

It's about the same percentage breakdown for a California recovery, but more than 40 percent think it will be later than June 2010 in Stanislaus County.

When it comes to hiring and firing, the Workforce Alliance found that 27 percent of respondents expect to trim workers, 57.5 percent plan to remain at current levels, 13.2 percent plan to hire and the rest expected "average" work force changes. That means more than 70 percent of those surveyed intend to hold on to their people or add some.

Kurtis Clark, director of the Alliance Small Business Development Center, said it's possible that county business owners may not want to trim more of their workers. Clark said business owners may now feel they shouldn't cut any deeper because more layoffs could hurt their ability to deliver goods and services.

Clark said the cost of replacing employees can be prohibitive when training is factored in. Losing key people from key positions can be challenging for businesses, especially if they have skills and experience not readily available in the valley.

But last week in south San Joaquin County, 100 workers at the Neenah Paper Co. in Ripon were told that the mill is closing in the next couple of months. They are victims of consolidation as the paper products company, based in Georgia, tries to cut costs.

Some state officials don't see valley unemployment improving until the food processors start hiring for the coming harvests. That could give employment enough of a boost to carry the region's economy into the new year and beyond if the broader economy has turned around.

There also was some evidence, again unscientific, over Mother's Day weekend that valley residents are starting to spend again, or at least think about it.

The shops at Vintage Faire Mall, McHenry Village, Target shopping centers in Modesto and other places were busy. It wasn't Christmas in May, but people were hitting the stores again rather than hunkering down.

American Chevrolet on McHenry Avenue in Modesto managed to attract more than 1,000 people to its dealership and others on auto row with the old-school unveiling of the 2010 Camaro. Amid all the automotive industry turmoil, that's a good sign.

Jeff Michael, director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific in Stockton, said most people probably pay more attention to their own experiences than the numbers when it comes to the economy.

Folks are continually bombarded with the latest economic reports, and it's hard to escape them. It's all part of the rise, fall and recovery of an economic cycle.

As Michael said, "It's just a process, and we have to go through it."

That's why it's so important not to get too worked up about the latest numbers. Inevitably, there will be more good ones, more bad ones and more that aren't as bad as expected.

Bee business editor David W. Hill can be reached at dhill@modbee.com or 578-2336.