ROSENBERG'S FANTASY: When selecting pitchers, throw out all logic

With apologies to our friends the platypus, the aye-aye and, of course, Terrell Owens, mankind has never known a more perplexing creature than the pitcher.

Exhibit A: Cliff Lee, who pitched his way back to the minors in 2007 and was a fifth starter at best for Cleveland last spring, got in touch with his inner Steve Carlton in going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in an AL Cy Young Award-winning season not even Lee saw coming in his wildest dreams.

Exhibit B: Preseason AL Cy Young pick Justin Verlander, whose first two full big-league seasons produced 35 wins and 300-plus strikeouts, slipped into another dimension of space, losing a major league-worst 17 games with a 4.80 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

BECAUSE PITCHING is always a crap shoot, one must proceed with caution on draft day. I had Jonathan Papelbon and Brandon Webb turn in typical Papelbon and Webb seasons, yet still ranked near the bottom in most pitching categories because Roy Oswalt, Brett Myers and Manny Corpas weren't the guys they'd been or were supposed to be from April to July.

Luck is always a factor, but you can make your own by knowing which pitchers are entering their prime or blessed with enough raw talent to compensate for whatever they might lack in experience.

To help you in your pitching quest, here are some hurlers we anticipate becoming fantasy titans in 2009.

CLAYTON KERSHAW, LHP, DODGERS -- The Giants' Tim Lincecum went from potential star to superstar in just his second season in the majors in 2008, and Kershaw, the Dodgers' prized left-hander, could easily do the same in '09. Both Lincecum and Kershaw, 20, came to the majors with can't-miss stuff and credentials and enjoyed modest success as rookies. Lincecum's first full season in the bigs produced 18 wins, 265 strikeouts, a 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and an NL Cy Young Award. Kershaw was 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 100 Ks in 107º innings as a rookie last season, but he was untouchable in September (3-0, 3.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 29 Ks in 28ª innings). To see him win in the ballpark of 15 to 18 games, strike out 180 or so batters and have an ERA closer to 3.00 than 4.00 would not be surprising in the least.

YOVANI GALLARDO, RHP, BREWERS -- Knee surgery limited him to just 24 innings for Milwaukee last season, but the right-hander was as good as advertised upon his return, striking out 20 in 24 innings with a 1.88 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. If Gallardo, 22, is able to make 30 starts, count on 15 wins, 160-plus strikeouts and stellar ratios from the Brewers' new ace.

DAVID PRICE, LHP, RAYS -- Price, the first pick in the 2007 draft, was solid in his September audition last season, striking out 12 in 14 innings while posting a 1.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, then the 23-year-old southpaw officially announced his arrival by closing out the Red Sox in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series. Price, now a starter, could be worth 15 to 18 wins and a strikeout per inning with the bonus gift of fantasy-friendly ratios.

ADAM WAINWRIGHT, RHP, CARDINALS -- A ruptured tendon in the middle finger of his pitching hand sidelined Wainwright for nearly three months last season, but the right-hander dominated when healthy, going 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 91 strikeouts in 132 innings. Wainwright will likely be a middle-round pick come draft day, but one capable of delivering 20 wins, 170 strikeouts and outstanding ratios.

FELIX HERNANDEZ, RHP, MARINERS -- Weight issues and rotten Seattle teams have kept the 22-year-old (9-11, 175 Ks, 3.45 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in '08) from becoming the star he was supposed to be by now, and the Mariners' babying him along hasn't helped, either, but the training wheels are finally expected to come off in '09. And now that he has clearance to let 'er rip, Hernandez could push 20 wins and 200 strikeouts if the planets are properly aligned.

Here are a few more low-risk, high-reward arms to monitor this spring: Josh Johnson, RHP, Marlins; Scott Baker, RHP, Twins; Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Mets; Jair Jurrjens, RHP, Braves; Kevin Slowey, RHP, Twins; Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Rockies; Matt Cain, RHP, Giants.

Stu Rosenberg's fantasy sports column runs Fridays. He can be reached at srosenberg@modbee.com or 578-2300.