Posted on Mon, Nov. 03, 2008

With two weeks left in the regular season, many of the Stanislaus District’s playoff races are taking shape, but a few remain murky. The playoff berths in parentheses:

MODESTO METRO CONFERENCE (2)

What’s likely: Johansen (3-0) beats Beyer and Downey for the title — and a home playoff opener. Enochs (2-1) beats Davis and Modesto, a combined 4-12, for the No. 2 seed.

What’s possible: As poorly as Modesto (1-2) played in losing its first seven, it has the talent to make the playoffs. If the Panthers top Downey and Enochs tops Davis this week, the two will play in Week 10 with the No. 2 berth at stake.

CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONFERENCE (2)

What’s likely: Merced (4-0) tops Turlock (3-1) and Pitman (3-1) for the title. Los Banos (2-2) beats Atwater and Buhach Colony, creating a three-way tie with the Turlock schools. Point differential in games between the three will favor Los Banos (plus 7), sending send Pitman (minus 1) and Turlock (minus 6) home.

What’s possible: LB loses and Turlock and Pitman are tied for second. Turlock advances due to a 7-0 win over Pitman.

VALLEY OAK LEAGUE (2)

What’s likely: The winner of Friday’s showdown between Oakdale (5-0) and Sierra (5-0) wins the final week to claim the title. The loser wins its finale to earn the No. 2 berth. Both teams will host openers.

What’s possible: With Sierra having clinched a berth, only Oakdale is at risk. Oakdale can do no worse than a three-way tie for second and a coin flip with Manteca and Sonora — and that’s only if it falls by 13 or more to Sonora Nov. 14.

TRANS-VALLEY LEAGUE (2)

What’s likely: Friday’s battle between Escalon and Modesto Christian (both 3-0) decides the title and the loser wins in Week 10 for the No. 2 berth. Both teams will host openers.

What’s possible: Escalon falls to MC and Ripon in Week 10. Ripon and Escalon would be 3-2, and Ripon would advance due to its head-to-head win.

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (3)

What’s likely: The winner of Friday’s game between Central Catholic (3-0) and Patterson (3-0) is assured a playoff berth and at least a co-title. Patterson has Hilmar (2-1) in Week 10. These are expected to be the three playoff teams.

What’s possible: In games pitting the top three against the bottom three, the average victory margin is 46 points — so don’t be expecting an upset.

MOTHER LODE LEAGUE (3)

What’s likely: Argonaut (3-0) wins out for the title, and Friday’s game between Summerville (2-1) and Calaveras (2-1) decides the other two playoff spots. Argonaut has already beaten both of those schools.

What’s possible: Only a huge Week 10 upset, Amador over Argonaut or Bret Harte over Calaveras, could change this.

SOUTHERN LEAGUE (3)

What’s likely: Mariposa (3-0) beats the bottom two, Denair and Delhi, for a title. If Waterford (2-1) and Le Grand (2-1) win this week, as expected, their showdown in Week 10 will decide the seedings for the final two playoff berths — the winner gets a home game.

What’s possible: If Turlock Christian (1-2) beats Waterford this week and Denair in Week 10, and Le Grand beats Waterford this week, the Eagles could get the No. 3 spot.