Tight Prop. 8 race closely watched

SAN FRANCISCO -- Five months and thousands of weddings after California's highest court sanctioned same-sex marriage, anxious eyes around the nation will closely follow voters Tuesday as they decide whether to turn back the clock.

Given the state's size and influence, the vote on a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage has become a referendum on sexual orientation and civil rights. Both sides call it the Gettysburg of the power struggle between the gay rights movement and the Christian right, with the victors capturing momentum in other states.

The race has tightened over the past six weeks and is expected to be close. A Field Poll released Friday found 49 percent of likely voters oppose the ban and 44 percent favor it. In mid-September, the measure was losing by 17 points.

"It's certainly closer than it was before the advertising campaign hit," said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. "A lot of that has to do with the campaigning on the 'Yes' (on 8) side."

In television ads, supporters have expanded their arguments beyond the issue of whether gay couples should be allowed to marry to warn that schools would incorporate same-sex marriage into lesson plans.

Opponents have dismissed those claims as scare tactics. They've argued that by eliminating the right of gays to marry, the measure would deprive one group of a freedom enjoyed by another group.

"In the minds of many people, Proposition 8 is the most important thing nationally on the ballot," said Tony Perkins, president of the Washington-based Family Research Council, which supports the measure. "We have survived bad presidents. But many, many are convinced we will not survive this redefinition of marriage."

Campaigns spend $69M

Religious and civil rights groups, wealthy philanthropists and middle-class donors have poured $69 million into campaigns for and against Proposition 8, making the initiative the most expensive election question this year outside the race for the White House.

Even the presidential candidates weighed in on Proposition 8: Sen. John McCain endorsed it and Sen. Barack Obama opposed it.

Obama's supporters overwhelmingly oppose Proposition 8, and those backing McCain overwhelmingly support it, according to the Field Poll. A poll released earlier this week showed Obama leading McCain in California by 22 percentage points.

DiCamillo said that has been factored into the Proposition 8 poll, which means that if Obama wins by a larger margin, the "No" side will benefit. The same is true for the "Yes" side if McCain beats expectations.

Geography also is a factor. Voters who live in coastal counties constitute 71 percent of likely voters, and they oppose the measure by a 54-39 margin, according to the poll.

Those who live inland back it by a 57-37 margin.

"This poll is showing the (Central Valley) strongly on the 'Yes' side," DiCamillo said. "It's just the rest of the state ... that is heavily on the 'No' side."

The majority of opinion leaders in the state, including almost every major newspaper, the League of Women Voters, the state NAACP, and moderate politicians such as Gov. Schwarzenegger and Sen. Dianne Feinstein, oppose the measure.

"This is the most intense and expensive social issues fight we have ever seen. And I think the real reason is because it's very rare in American life (that) we have ever put existing rights on the ballot," said Patrick Guerriero, a former leader of the gay Log Cabin Republicans who now directs the No on 8 campaign.

But the measure's opponents have found a formidable foe in the coalition of religious and social conservatives who sponsored the initiative. Since leaders of the Utah-based Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints appealed to members to back the ban, Mormon dollars and volunteers have streamed into California.

L. Whitney Clayton, the church's liaison with a coalition called ProtectMarriage.com, said the religious right and Mormons see a threat to the fundamental underpinnings of their faiths.

"The impact upon society over the long run is something that makes people very apprehensive," Clayton said. "What will our children be taught in school? What will happen to the freedom of religion? What will people be able to preach and believe, and will they be able to do the things that they are accustomed to doing?"

Catholics, evangelicals, too

California Roman Catholics, at the urging of bishops, also have stepped up with money and manpower, as have evangelical Christians.

The measure, which would change the California Constitution to limit marriage to a woman and a man, marks the first time voters have been asked to ban same-sex unions retroactively. If passed, it would overrule the state Supreme Court decision in May that said preventing gays from marrying was unlawful discrimination.

The Sacramento Bee contributed to this report.