Stanislaus County knows how to pick a president

As Stanislaus County goes, so goes the nation?

That's not a common belief, but under the radar, Stanislaus County's voters have picked the winning presidential ticket in the past nine elections -- a 36-year winning streak that includes Democrats and Republicans.

It turns out, voters here are pretty good at identifying successful presidential candidates. The last time voters backed a losing candidate was in 1968, when Democrat Hubert Humphrey eked out a slim margin over Republican Richard Nixon in the county but lost the national election.

Even when the county's party voter registrations heavily favored Democrats, Stanislaus voters opted for winning Republican presidential candidates in 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988 and 2000. They chose Democratic candidates in 1976, 1992 and 1996, the years that Democrats took the White House.

By 2004, Republicans had erased the registration advantage Democrats had held, and voters again went with the winner, helping to re-elect George W. Bush.

Political observers aren't quite ready to declare Stanislaus a bellwether county, however.

"I don't know what it says about Stanislaus

County," said Larry Giventer, a political science professor at California State University, Stanislaus. "I guess it's a cross-section of America in its political outlook."

Democratic party activist Sandy Lucas noted that even when the county had a Democratic majority in voter registration, the Democrats elected in Stanislaus County tended to be conservative -- Blue Dog Democrats such as Gary Condit and Dennis Cardoza in Congress.

"It's really been a purple county for a long time," said Lucas, referring to a blend of the Democratic blue and Republican red. Conservative Democrats here sometimes vote for Republicans, and moderate Republicans will sometimes vote for Democrats, she said.

So what does that mean for the Nov. 4 election? It apparently means a donnybrook.

Record number of voters registering

Whether it's hockey moms and hunters yearning for a McCain-Palin victory or young and first-time voters looking for change in an Obama-Biden win, people are registering to vote in record numbers in Stanislaus County.

"Our numbers are the highest I've seen them," said Stanislaus County Clerk-Recorder Lee Lundrigan. Registration topped 226,000 this week, compared with 206,682 in the 2004 presidential election. The numbers are a moving target, Lundrigan noted, with new registrations arriving by mail even beyond Monday's deadline to vote in this year's election.

"I can tell you there is something going on out there, the level of interest not just here but up and down the state," said Joan Clendenin, chairwoman of the county Republican Party.

"We've seen an unprecedented demand for information -- signs, buttons, posters, T-shirts," she said.

Debate parties, where people come to watch the televised debates, typically drew 15 or so people in the past, Clendenin said. This year, they drew 60 to 110, she said -- that last number for the vice presidential debate.

"There's a lot of excitement this time," Lucas said. "It's really wonderful, young people are engaged ... it's a real watershed election."

Giventer agreed. "There's a pent-up groundswell, particularly in younger voters and newer voters," he said. Giventer attributed the new interest to dissatisfaction with the economy, employment opportunities, health care and the war in Iraq.

And while Democratic numbers appear to be up and Republican numbers down slightly compared with the 2004 election, the biggest growth is in voters who don't want to affiliate with either party.

"Declined to state" has grown steadily in Stanislaus County since 1968, when it stood at less than 2.5 percent. It's running more than 15 percent for this election. Statewide, that number is even higher, Giventer said.

It reflects a disenchantment with the political parties, and a privacy issue, he said -- people don't want to be labeled and identified.

Clendenin was less kind.

"At the risk of insulting them, I think they are people who don't know what they think," she said. "They don't believe in anything."

Most are angry at one or the other of the major parties, Clendenin said, and the reasons are different for each one.

Lucas said the undeclared voters tend to follow particular issues rather than a broad ideology that would put them in one party.

Many don't realize they are cutting themselves out of the primary election, Lundrigan said, and they reregister with a party once they discover that.

So which way will Stanislaus County's sage voters tilt in 12 days? Will they embrace change with Obama and Joe Biden, or become mavericks with McCain and Sarah Palin? And will the winner in Stanislaus County again be the winning ticket nationally, making it 10 in a row?

Don't touch that dial ...

Bee staff writer Tim Moran can be reached at tmoran@modbee.com or 578-2349.