Moving primary not such great idea

Perhaps the most interesting post-game analysis of Tuesday's California state primary is pondering what might have been.

State legislators thought they'd made a bold move in March 2007, when Gov. Schwarzenegger passed a bill to move the presidential primary up to February from its planned June 3 date.

An early primary here would give the nation's most populous state a bigger say in deciding the presidential nominees, and many thought that would end the primary season early.

Reality played out differently, with the primary season ending only on Tuesday, the same day California had a legislative -- but not presidential -- primary, and with atrocious voter turnout to boot.

The sight of Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton campaigning in afterthought states such as Montana and South Dakota -- because their votes became decisive ones -- was jarring to anyone who realized that those two states have a combined population of less than 2 million people.

There are more people in the San Joaquin Valley. Had California kept its June 3 presidential primary, it's possible Obama would've given a speech at Graceada Park and Clinton might have done a shot at one of Modesto's downtown night spots.

Ruminations like those run up against the reality of last week: The actual primary was pretty dull.

But the results do offer some clues as to what will be the political threads running through the rest of '08 and beyond.

At least until recently, the highest-profile race in the Northern San Joaquin Valley was the attempted recall of state Sen. Jeff Denham, R-Atwater. After Sacramento backers folded their hand, the momentum was blunted, and Denham won easily.

Hopefully, puppet masters on both sides of the political aisle take a lesson from the voters' repudiation of the recall.

Trying to boot an elected official who won the office fairly should be reserved for only the most egregious conduct, and even broken campaign promises, frustrating as they might be, probably don't meet that standard.

With a handful of races statewide, including the 26th Assembly District, looking like they might be competitive in November, it's possible some legislators will end up representing districts with registration favoring the other party. That could tempt political busybodies; the lesson of the failed Denham recall is to save their money.

The recall's failure was part of a particularly bad night for state Senate Pro Tem Don Perata, a Democrat who pushed for Denham's ouster behind the scenes. Perata also backed Sen. Carole Migden, the rare incumbent who lost her own primary.

Two high-profile losses mean Perata, who some say plans to run for Oakland's mayoral job next year, should concentrate this summer on quietly cobbling a workable state budget with Republican help, and perhaps modestly replenish his now bone-dry account of political capital.

Voters weren't into the recall, and statewide, they weren't into a more broad form of eminent domain reform. That could be seen in the failure of Proposition 98 and the passage of milder reform in Proposition 99.

What truly did Proposition 98 in was the inclusion of rent control's elimination. Pro-99 forces used that to brand Proposition 98 as a cloaked menace, and voters apparently agreed.

With turnout statewide running about a quarter of all registered voters, the topic of eminent domain obviously didn't fire up too many people.

That won't be a problem in November, when hot-button topics such as gay marriage, a Stanislaus County transportation tax, animal rights, parental consent for abortions and renewable energy mandates will be on the ballot.

Those issues, and a presidential race that might break a record for total number of voters, will be the major factors driving voters back to the polls.

One other political trend in 2008 looks likely to continue: unpredictability.

Favorites lost to upstarts in legislative races from the Bay Area to San Diego on Tuesday. And Democrats and Republicans think several state Senate and Assembly races could be in play, a rarity in a time of hideously gerrymandered districts.

Add in an economy that still might be sinking, and politicians of all kinds should take heed of polls that show most voters think the state is headed the wrong way.

Ballot boxes are where those perceptions come home to roost.

IT'S BEEN INTERESTING: Fun as it's been, this is my last On Politics column for The Bee, as I'm headed to Sacramento to write for www.politicker.com. The valley is an interesting place to follow politics; here's to hoping this column cast more light than heat.

Bee staff writer Ben van der Meer can be reached at bvandermeer@modbee.com or 578-2331.