Having neutralized much of the opposition, developers of Modesto's next large growth proposal hope to win over planning commissioners Monday.
The 454-acre Tivoli project is Modesto's first opportunity for big-box stores on the city's east side. Concept papers also show an estimated 9,000 people living in as many as 3,193 new homes replacing mostly vacant fields northeast of Sylvan Avenue and Oakdale Road.
Supporters have spent the past decade running market and environmental studies, discussing possible sites for a new school, soothing fears of neighbors who know their treasured country living would never be the same and trying to pull on board the area's single largest landowner.
Documents: check.
School: check, though no one's certain it will end up where it's shown on a concept map.
Neighbors: check on one group; still negotiating with another that just lawyered up.
Largest landowner: check, sort of. He's not fighting Tivoli and even kept the dream going with cash for consultants, but clearly has a mind of his own.
For a large project, that's decent positioning. Good enough, proponents think, to take a run Monday at the Modesto Planning Commission, followed by the City Council a few weeks after that and an annexation request in late spring or early summer.
And then, a waiting game -- at least for new homes.
"Can you tell me what the housing market will be like?" asked Dave Romano, a civil engineer and Tivoli frontman even before Modesto voters gave the project a nod at the ballot box in November 2001.
Mable Avenue conditions
Romano and five investment groups hope Tivoli will be construction-ready by the time the slumping home market rebounds. Tivoli's retail component, including a home improvement store southeast of Mable Avenue and Oakdale Road, likely would be developed before then, Romano said.
That western swath of Tivoli, stretching north along Oakdale to the future extension of Claratina Avenue, has provided the most visible controversy so far. Peace-and-quiet-loving owners of eight ranchettes in the middle, on Mable, could not fathom being surrounded by the constant noise, lights and bustle of megastores, and two years ago they hired a lawyer.
PMZ Real Estate's Mike Zagaris, another name linked to Tivoli from the start, and his lawyer, former city attorney Michael Milich, took on negotiations. They eventually agreed with the demands of the "Mabelites," as some call themselves, to:
Block off Mable at Oakdale. Residents would drive home from the east on future Tivoli roads.
Buffer the ranchettes with a layer of new ones between the old ones and the stores.
"We want to keep the atmosphere of the neighborhood," said Rebecca Speer, a Mabelite for 20 years whose neighbors have llamas and goats. "When those (new ranchette owners) purchase, they'll know there is going to be a shopping center. They'll know it going in."
Not grade into ranchettes' front yards when crews improve Mable.
"We're feeling comfortable with the concessions," Speer said. "We thought you can't fight city hall, but if you get a good attorney and stick together as a group, it's a lot easier to get results. I'm proud of our neighborhood."
City codes don't permit "discount superstores" there, such as a Super Wal-Mart, Super Target or Kmart Super Center. Discount clubs, though -- also large, such as Costco or Sam's Club -- are OK. So are stores such as Best Buy, Michael's and Bed, Bath and Beyond or a regular-sized Kmart.
Romano declined to say which retailers are angling for the spot. He downplayed competition with Riverbank's Crossroads shopping center just up the road, which has a Home Depot, Target and Kohl's, noting that Modesto's commercial district along Highway 99 appears to thrive despite many rivals nearby.